The Importance Of Social Media In Elections: Mostly Hot Air

If social media mattered in elections, Ron Paul would have a realistic shot at being the Republican nominee and Barack Obama would be on track to crush Mitt Romney in the biggest landslide in American history. Despite the hype over follower counts, a new study shows that there's no credible evidence that Twitter can be used to predict how elections will turn out. "It can be concluded that the predictive power of Twitter regarding elections has been greatly exaggerated," writes computer science professor, Daniel Gayo-Avello, in an unusually strident rant (for an academic). Gayo's conclusions are intuitive: social media users are an unrepresentative slice of voters, and tweets may not accurately reflect how voters behave.

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